A statewide survey by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, released October 21, puts the Florida governor's race inside the margin of error: Republican Byron Donalds at 49% and Democrat David Jolly at 47% among likely voters. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 49% to 45%.
The lab interviewed 1,471 likely Florida midterm voters by live telephone interview from October 12 to 19; the margin of error is plus or minus 2.81 percentage points. Both races have narrowed since the lab's July poll, which had Donalds ahead by five points and Moody by eight. Polling averages tracked by Decision Desk HQ still show Donalds ahead by roughly six points, so this survey is tighter than the average.
The poll also found Amendment 3, the property-tax measure, at 50% support, 35% opposed and 14% undecided — below the 60% approval it needs to pass.
Why it matters: early voting is underway across Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach through November 1, ahead of the November 3 election. Turnout in South Florida could decide both statewide races and the tax amendment.
